The Obama campaign smells of defeat
<p>My normal style on this blog is to write think pieces.  I post when I have an idea I need to grapple with; the process of writing and researching helps me organize and sharpen my thinking.  Sometimes, the process changes my mind about an issue.</p>
<p>This once, I&#8217;m posting to report a gut feeling I&#8217;ve been getting more and more strongly in the last two weeks.  It started with Barack Obama&#8217;s VP choice of Joe Biden, got stronger when McCain tapped Sarah Palin, and has become overwhelming in the last two days.  My feeling is this: Barack Obama is toast.  He&#8217;s  done, stick a fork in him.  It&#8217;s not that I think the McCain/Palin ticket is going to win, it&#8217;s that I feel strongly that the Obama/Biden ticket is going to lose.</p>
<p>Note: This is not partisan cheering I&#8217;m doing.  I&#8217;m not a McCain fan: I&#8217;ve never forgiven him for the the McCain-Feingold &#8220;campaign finance reform&#8221; bill, which I consider the most atrocious rape-job on the First Amendment in my lifetime.  And I agree with Matt Welch&#8217;s <a href="http://www.reason.com/news/show/118937.html">portrait of an authoritarian maverick</a>; McCain&#8217;s is in many ways a frighteningly authoritarian personality. I have, at best, very mixed feelings about seeing him in the White House.</p>
<p>No, what I&#8217;m reacting to is a gut sense that the wheels are coming off the Obama bandwagon and it&#8217;s headed for a big, ugly crackup.  I would no longer be surprised if Obama melted down in a serious way during the debates, though I don&#8217;t think keeping his cool will save him from being trounced.  I don&#8217;t even think the election&#8217;s going to be close anymore.</p>
<p>Why?  Lots of things.  Poll numbers. Sarah Palin. The hysterically vituperative reaction to Sarah Palin from the left and the media (which I think is a gift beyond price to the Republicans).  The way Obama himself seems to be fraying around the edges, losing his cool, gaffe frequency increasing. Democratic supporters dissing him in Duryea. I smell desperation and failure; I see the Democratic party, yet again, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.</p>
<p>OK, I&#8217;ve said it on the record.  When the votes are counted, I&#8217;ll take the kudos or the lumps for it.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Democrats&#8217; polling league in a generic contest has <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congress-Suddenly-Looks-Competitive.aspx">collapsed</a>.  Control of Congress is in play.  Wow.  Just wow.  Considering how hard the Republicans have been fucking up and alienating their base, this is <em>astonishing</em>.  EPIC FAIL.</p>
