Causes and implications of the pause
<p>That is the title of a <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2014/03/04/causes-and-implications-of-the-pause/">paper</a> attempting to explain (away) the 17-year nothing that happened while CAGW models were predicting warming driven by increasing CO2.  CO2 increased.  Measured GAT did not.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s the money quote: &#8220;The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level.&#8221;</p>
<p>That is an establishment climatologist&#8217;s cautious scientist-speak for &#8220;The IPCC&#8217;s anthropogenic-global-warming models are fatally broken. Kaput. Busted.&#8221;</p>
<p>I told you so.  I told you so.  I told you so!</p>
<p>I even predicted it would happen this year, yesterday on my Ask Me Anything on Slashdot.  This wasn&#8217;t actually brave of me: the Economist noticed that the GAT trend was about to fall to worse than 5% fit to the IPCC models six months ago.</p>
<p>Here is my next prediction &#8211; and remember, I have been <em>consistently</em> right about these.  The next phase of the comedy will feature increasingly frantic attempts to bolt epicycles onto the models. These epicycles will have names like &#8220;ENSO&#8221;, &#8220;standing wave&#8221; and &#8220;Atlantic Oscillation&#8221;. </p>
<p>All these attempts will <em>fail</em>, both predictively and retrodictively. It&#8217;s junk science all the way down.</p>
