59 lines
3.9 KiB
Plaintext
59 lines
3.9 KiB
Plaintext
Kurds in the Coal Mine
|
|
<p>How will we know if the attempt to reconstruct Iraq is failing?</p>
|
|
<p>This is a serious question. With as much hysterical anti-Iraq-war,<br />
|
|
anti-Bush-Administration fabrication going in the media as there has<br />
|
|
been, it’s tempting for a rational person to dismiss every negative<br />
|
|
report as just another load of Michael Mooronism and dismiss it. That<br />
|
|
would be a mistake. Things could still go very bad there. How would<br />
|
|
we tell?</p>
|
|
<p><span id="more-196"></span></p>
|
|
<p>I was pondering this question the other day, and I realized that there<br />
|
|
is an excellent test for the state of Iraq. When the Kurds start muttering<br />
|
|
about secession, <em>then</em> is the time to worry that matters are<br />
|
|
spinning out of control. Conversely, as long as they’re happy to<br />
|
|
stay in Iraq, outsiders can feel reasonably confident that the place<br />
|
|
is not going to hell in a handbasket.</p>
|
|
<p>Consider. The Kurds have mostly been running their own affairs<br />
|
|
since the end of Gulf War I, shielded by the northern no-fly zone.<br />
|
|
They’re a large, cohesive minority with cross-border ties to Kurds<br />
|
|
elsewhere and a recurring dream of an independent Kurdistan. They<br />
|
|
have enough oil to jump-start an independent national economy. Their<br />
|
|
militia, the peshmergas, has a reputation for effectiveness and is<br />
|
|
probably the best-trained factional army in Iraq. And of all the<br />
|
|
factions, they’re on the best terms with the U.S.</p>
|
|
<p>It was, frankly, a bit surprising to me that the Kurds didn’t bid<br />
|
|
for independence when the Hussein regime went down. Of all Iraq’s<br />
|
|
tribal factions (except the defeated Sunnis) they have the least to<br />
|
|
gain from staying in the national government. Consequently, the<br />
|
|
Shi’ites have been forced to cede them an allocation of ministries and<br />
|
|
top posts far out of proportion to the Kurdish percentage of the</p>
|
|
<p>population. The President of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, is a Kurd</p>
|
|
<p>(For those who need a reminder, the Kurds are roughly 20% of<br />
|
|
the population, Sunnis 17%, Shi’ites about 60%; other groups such<br />
|
|
as Turkomens are statistical noise)</p>
|
|
<p>An early respondent to this essay brought up the Turks. Out of<br />
|
|
nervousness about their large Kurdish minority, they have been<br />
|
|
threatening military action against any attempt to form Kurdistan<br />
|
|
for years; the conventional wisdom is that this is what kept the<br />
|
|
Kurds from declaring independence after Gulf War I. But there are<br />
|
|
at least two reasons the Kurds can now calculate much lower odds of<br />
|
|
a Turkish coup de main. One is that Turkey has its hopes for escape<br />
|
|
from Third-World-pesthole status pinned to joining the European Union<br />
|
|
which (to say the least) doesn’t look kindly on military adventurism<br />
|
|
in prospective members. The second is the presence of American troops<br />
|
|
on the ground in North Iraq. Any confrontation with them would turn<br />
|
|
a Turkish incursion into a disastrous failure.</p>
|
|
<p>All in all, the option to form Kurdistan has never looked more viable.<br />
|
|
This is why the Kurds’ attitude towards Iraq-the-nation should be a<br />
|
|
reliable barometer. The Baathist/Jihadi insurgency has very little<br />
|
|
strength in the Kurdish north; if the Kurds think it’s winning<br />
|
|
elsewhere, or that the politics of Iraq-the-nation has gone seriously<br />
|
|
dysfunctional, they’re very well positioned to bail out. Conversely,<br />
|
|
as long as they figure there’s something to be gained by staying in<br />
|
|
Iraq, the rest of us can take that as a proxy that the place is<br />
|
|
improving.</p>
|
|
<p>Figuring this out has been a relief. Now I can ignore the constant<br />
|
|
doomsaying by George Bush’s political enemies and just keep a weather<br />
|
|
eye on the Kurds. While they’re happy, I won’t worry about Iraq too<br />
|
|
much.</p>
|